Ритерс Рэнт 085: Блокада Ирана — политическая бутафория Трампа

Ritter’s Rant 085: The Blockade

Источник: https://scottritter.substack.com/p/ritters-rant-085-the-blockade

Hello and welcome to this edition of Ritter's Rant. Today we're going to be talking about a blockade or quarantine or whatever terminology we want to use, but the bottom line is the effort by the United States to prevent shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping is affiliated with Iranian ports, Iranian economic activity, things of this nature. It's designed to put pressure on Iran. It's designed to choke off the uh economic lifeblood of of iran to prevent iran from selling oil and uh gaining income um all an effort to get iran to back away from you know its current posture of saying we iran control the straight war moves and we will control the flow of shipping in and out of the straight over moves um For the Iranians, the status of the Strait of Hormuz is of strategic importance. It is their equivalent of a nuclear bomb, so to speak, because the damage that Iran will be able to inflict on the global economy if it chooses to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is immense.

And since much of the world recognizes that the ongoing conflict, even though it's currently in a state of ceasefire, the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel is a conflict of choice that was thrust upon Iran by the United States and Israel, who carried out a surprise attack on February 28th that lacked any justification under international law or even in case the United States constitutional law. Iran posed no threat to anybody worthy of military action. Indeed, any concerns nations such as the United States or Israel may have had about Iran were readily mitigated through negotiations, which Iran were actively participating in at the time of the attack, the surprise attack. And so When we speak of the economic harm that will befall the global community, if Iran chooses to restrict severely or even block outright the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world understands who's to blame.

And that person is Donald Trump for initiating this action. Now, the question is, can Donald Trump put pressure on Iran sufficient to get them to reverse course? Will this blockade succeed? The answer is not just no, but hell no. This blockade doesn't exist, first of all. To call it a blockade is incorrect. A blockade is an act of war. According to Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, we're not at war with Iran. It's a military operation. And so right off the bat, we have a semantic issue because To say we're engaged in a blockade is to say that we are engaged in an act of war. Therefore, if we seek to board, say, ships that are flagged to China and Russia, it's an act of war or an act of piracy. But either way, it doesn't look good for the United States. You know, President John Kennedy was faced with the same semantic issue back in 1962, October 62, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. You know, popular um accounts speak of a blockade a naval blockade of cuba but of course it wasn't because that would be an act of war an act of war against the soviet union at that time um what the john f kennedy called was a quarantine it was a quarantine of cuba and you know he was able using that that terminology to get not just the u.s navy involved but also you know he attracted ships from argentina from venezuela You know, they were responding.

These are Organization of American States responding to the Rio Treaty. The United Kingdom provided ships. So it wasn't just the U.S. Navy that was involved in the quarantine of Cuba. It was an international task force. The number of ships involved were dozens and it was effective. They had a ring, a quarantine ring that extended out 800 miles, 500 miles from Cuba. And they were very effective in identifying ships and being prepared to stop them, board them, inspect them, should it come to that. Here in the current blockade slash quarantine, the United States has 13 ships. But are they fully capable of carrying out this? First of all, they're operating in a huge expanse of water, the Indian Ocean. even if they get into the gulf of oman it's um it's too much territory too little ships so they're physically unable to carry out an effective interdiction process or program so right off the bat whatever blockade or quarantine they're trying to achieve they're physically not able to do so um but moreover if they seek to board ships that operating off the coast of Iran within the range arc of Iran's ballistic missile or cruise missile capabilities, then this act of war would be responded to using military force by Iran, putting the ships that were carrying out the enforcement at great risk.

And so what we see right off the bat is that this blockade has a huge impact no go zone for the U.S. Navy that extends from the Iranian coast, you know, dozens of miles. How can you have a quarantine if you have a safety corridor already built in that the United States can't operate and you don't? Moreover, you know, China has said that it will be shipping It's, you know, sending its ships loaded with Iranian oil coming from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz and into the open oceans heading to China and that the United States will not interdict this and the United States won't interdict this. So, again, how can you have a quarantine or a blockade when already there are exceptions? And I believe Russia is an exception and India is an exception and other nations will be exceptions as well. Even if the blockade were to work, though, you know, in terms of the numbers of ships and shutting down corridors, it's not going to have an effect.

One of the big problems that faces Donald Trump is time. Time. Time is not on his side. As we speak, you know, the United States is playing games with the international oil market. We are buying paper shares of oil, doing financial tricks to keep the price of oil down. But at some point in time, reality will catch up. And if the strait war moves, continues to be constricted, or if the United States does anything precipitous that causes it to close down, in short order, you will see oil, the price of oil, approach $200 a barrel, and that's fatal for the global economy. So time is not on the side of Trump. Time is on the side of the Iranians. They don't need to ship a whole bunch of oil out of the strait war moves. They are, and they will continue to do so. But Because of sanctions and because of the way Iran has dealt with sanctions, there's a great, huge amount of Iranian oil out on the open seas in tankers that have just been floating around waiting for markets to develop.

That's how Iran has dealt with the sanctions. These tankers now will be going to ports of countries that need oil because, again, thanks to Donald Trump, there's been a constriction of oil supplies and there's a need out there. And the Iranian ships with Iranian oil will provide that which nations need. And this will take weeks to do this. Already the Iranians have bought enough time. They're not going to suffer during the period of time if Trump was to successfully shut down the straight-whore moves, which he can't. Iran has developed mechanisms that will allow them to continue to receive oil-based income well beyond the two-week time period that Donald Trump's dealing with here. Iran also has sufficient land corridors available to it. Numerous nations border Iran, and Iran has been shipping its oil through these nations to markets and will continue to do so. And the sea-based embargo slash blockade slash quarantine that Trump is putting on Iran, at least in theory, has no impact on the land border so the bottom line is this quarantine is a joke it's a political posture and why is donald trump doing this donald trump needs to be seen politically here at home as doing something that um that shows america is winning that america is imposing its will on the region um sadly the american people are pretty ignorant about the world we live in and uh not too many people are cognizant of the things that I've just discussed regarding the reality of the ineffectiveness of a quarantine and the reality of Iran's ability to bypass the quarantine.

So Donald Trump, being the con man that he is, will be able to convince enough Americans that whatever outcome he hopes to achieve. And believe me, I have a funny feeling that Americans and Iranians are going to be negotiating pretty soon because Donald Trump can't afford to restart this conflict. we don't know what israel is going to do they're always the wild card but from the american perspective i don't see the united states restarting this conflict in terms of an active shooting where the consequences will be horrible for the united states uh you know iran had the upper hand when the ceasefire began um and nothing's changed that would deny iran from being able to continue to you know have the upper hand in terms of actual military face-to-face conflict uh Trump can't go back to war, so he needs peace, but he needs peace on the terms that are politically acceptable to him amongst the domestic audience.

And so the blockade is a bunch of blustering, a bunch of posturing. There's not much serious there, but the American people aren't in a position to ascertain whether the blockade is successful or not. They'll believe what the president tells him. And I have a funny feeling in a couple of days, the president's going to make an announcement that says, The Iranians have reached out to us. They're begging for a deal. And I'm ready to make a deal. And this deal could only happen because of my quarantine, my blockade of the Iranian ports. There it is, the reality of Donald Trump. Frustrating, but it's one we have to deal with. Anyways, that's my rant. Next time a thought crosses my mind, I'll be sure to let you know.

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═══ Транскрипция видео 1 ═══

Hello and welcome to this edition of Ritter's Rant. Today we're going to be talking about a blockade or quarantine or whatever terminology we want to use, but the bottom line is the effort by the United States to prevent shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping is affiliated with Iranian ports, Iranian economic activity, things of this nature. It's designed to put pressure on Iran. It's designed to choke off the economic lifeblood of Iran, to prevent Iran from selling oil and gaining income, all in effort to get Iran to back away from its current posture of saying, we, Iran, control the Strait of Hormuz and we will control the flow of shipping in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. For the Iranians, the status of the Strait of Hormuz is of strategic importance. It is their equivalent of a nuclear bomb, so to speak, because the damage that Iran will be able to inflict on the global economy if it chooses to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is immense. And since much of the the world recognizes that the ongoing conflict, even though it's currently in a state of ceasefire, the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is a conflict of choice that was thrust upon Iran by the United States and Israel, who carried out a surprise attack on February 28th that lacked any justification under international law or even, in case of the United States, constitutional law.

Iran posed no threat to anybody worthy of military action. Indeed, any concerns nations such as the United States or Israel may have had about Iran were readily mitigated through negotiations, which Iran were actively participating in at the time of the attack, the surprise attack. And so when we speak of the economic harm that will befall the global community, if Iran chooses to restrict severely or even block outright the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world understands who's to blame. And that person is Donald Trump for initiating this action. Now, the question is, can Donald Trump put pressure on Iran sufficient to get them to reverse course? Will this blockade succeed? The answer is not just no, but hell no. This blockade doesn't exist, first of all. To call it a blockade is incorrect. A blockade is an act of war. According to Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, we're not at war with Iran. It's a military operation.

And so right off the bat, we have a semantic issue. Because to say we're engaged in a blockade is to say that we are engaged in an act of war. And therefore, if we seek to board, say, ships that are flagged to China and Russia, it's an act of war or an act of piracy. But either way, it doesn't look good for the United States. You know, President John Kennedy was faced with the same semantic issue back in 1962, October 62, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. You know, popular accounts speak of a blockade, a naval blockade of Cuba. But of course, it wasn't because that would be an act of war, an act of war against the Soviet Union at that time. What John F. Kennedy called it was a quarantine. It was a quarantine of Cuba. And, you know, he was able, using that that terminology to get not just the U.S. Navy involved, but also, you know, he attracted ships from Argentina, from Venezuela. You know, they were responding. These are Organization of American States responding to the Rio Treaty. The United Kingdom provided ships.

So it wasn't just the U.S. Navy that was involved in the quarantine of Cuba. It was an international task force. The number of ships involved were dozens. And it was effective. They had a ring, a quarantine ring that extended out 800 miles, 500 miles from Cuba. And they were very effective in identifying ships and, you know, being prepared to stop them, board them, inspect them, should it come to that. Here in the current blockade slash quarantine, the United States has 13 ships. But are they fully capable of carrying out this? First of all, they're operating in a huge expanse of water, the Indian Ocean. Even if they get into the Gulf of Oman, it's too much territory, too little ships. So they're physically unable to carry out an effective interdiction process or program. So right off the bat, whatever blockade or quarantine they're trying to achieve, they're physically not able to do so. But moreover, if they seek to board ships that are operating off the coast of Iran within the range arc of Iran's ballistic missile or cruise missile capabilities, then this act of war would be responded to using military force by Iran, putting the ships that were carrying out the enforcement at great risk. And so what we see right off the bat is that this blockade has a huge no-go zone for the U.S. Navy that extends from the Iranian coast, you know, dozens of miles. How can you have a quarantine if you have a safety corridor already built in that the United States can't operate it?

You don't. Moreover, you know, China has said that it will be shipping, it's, you know, sending its ships loaded with Iranian oil coming from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz and into the open oceans heading to China, and that the United States will not interdict this, and the United States won't interdict this. So again, how can you have a quarantine or a blockade when already there are exceptions? And I believe Russia is an exception and India is an exception and other nations will be exceptions as well. Even if the blockade were to work, though, you know, in terms of the numbers of ships and shutting down corridors, it's not going to have an effect. One of the big problems that faces Donald Trump is time. Time. Time is not on his side. As we speak, you know, the United States is playing games with the international oil market. We are, you know, buying paper shares of oil, doing financial tricks to keep the price of oil down. But at some point in time, you know, reality will catch up. And if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be constricted, or if the United States does anything precipitous that causes it to close down, in short order, you will see oil, the price of oil, approach $200 a barrel, and that's fatal for the global economy. So time is not on the side of Trump. Time is on the side of the Iranians. You know, they don't need to ship a whole bunch of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. They are, and they will continue to do so. But because of sanctions, and because of the way Iran has dealt with sanctions, there's a great huge amount of Iranian oil out on the open seas in tankers that have just been floating around waiting for markets to develop. That's how Iran has dealt with the sanctions. These tankers now will be going to ports of countries that need oil. Because, again, thanks to Donald Trump, there's been a constriction of oil supplies, and there's a need out there. And the Iranian ships with Iranian oil will, you know, provide that which nations need. And this will take weeks to do this. So already, the Iranians have bought, you know, enough time. They're not going to suffer during the period of time if Trump was to successfully shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which he can't. Iran has developed mechanisms that will allow them to continue to receive oil-based income well beyond the two-week time period that Donald Trump's dealing with here. Iran also has sufficient land corridors available to it. Numerous nations border Iran, and Iran has been shipping its oil through these nations to markets and will continue to continue to do so. And the sea-based, you know, embargo-slash-blockade-slash-quarantine that Trump is putting on Iran, at least in theory, has no impact on the land borders. So the bottom line is this quarantine is a joke. It's a political posture. And why is Donald Trump doing this? Donald Trump needs to be seen politically here at home as doing something that shows America's winning, that America is imposing its will on the region. Sadly, the American people are pretty ignorant about the world we live in. And, you know, not too many people are cognizant of the things that I've just discussed regarding the reality of the ineffectiveness of a quarantine and the reality of Iran's ability to bypass the quarantine. You know, so Donald Trump, being the con man that he is, will be able to convince enough Americans that, you know, whatever outcome he hopes to achieve, and believe me, I have a funny feeling that Americans and Iranians are going to be negotiating pretty soon because Donald Trump can't afford to restart this conflict. We don't know what Israel is going to do. They're always the wild card. But from the American perspective, I don't see the United States restarting this conflict in terms of an active shooting, where the consequences will be horrible for the United States. You know, Iran had the upper hand when the ceasefire began. And nothing's changed that would deny Iran from being able to continue to, you know, have the upper hand in terms of actual military face-to-face conflict. Trump can't go back to war, so he needs peace, but he needs peace on the terms that are politically acceptable to him amongst the domestic audience. And so the blockade is a bunch of blustering, a bunch of posturing. There's not much serious there, but the American people aren't in a position to ascertain whether the blockade is successful or not. They'll believe what the president tells him. And I have a funny feeling in a couple of days, the president's going to make an announcement that says the Iranians have reached out to us. They're begging for a deal and I'm ready to make a deal. And this deal could only happen because of my quarantine, my blockade of the Iranian ports. There it is, the reality of Donald Trump. Frustrating, but it's one we have to deal with. Anyways, that's my rant. Next time a thought crosses my mind, I'll be sure to let you know. Thank you.

═══ Транскрипция видео 2 ═══

Hello and welcome to this edition of Ritter's Rant. Today we're going to be talking about a blockade or quarantine or whatever terminology we want to use, but the bottom line is the effort by the United States to prevent shipping out of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping is affiliated with Iranian ports, Iranian economic activity, things of this nature. It's designed to put pressure on Iran. It's designed to choke off the economic lifeblood of Iran, to prevent Iran from selling oil and gaining income, all in an effort to get Iran to back away from its current posture of saying, we, Iran, control the Strait of Hormuz and we will control the flow of shipping in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. For the Iranians, the status of the Strait of Hormuz is of strategic importance. It is their equivalent of a nuclear bomb, so to speak, because the damage that Iran will be able to inflict on the global economy if it chooses to shut down the Strait of Hormuz is immense. And since much of the the world recognizes that the ongoing conflict, even though it's currently in a state of ceasefire, the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is a conflict of choice that was thrust upon Iran by the United States and Israel, who carried out a surprise attack on February 28th that lacked any justification under international law or even, in the case of the United States, constitutional law.

Iran posed no threat to anybody worthy of military action. Indeed, any concerns nations such as the United States or Israel may have had about Iran were readily mitigated through negotiations, which Iran were actively participating in at the time of the attack, the surprise attack. And so when we speak of the economic harm that will befall the global community, if Iran chooses to restrict severely or even block outright the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world understands who's to blame. And that person is Donald Trump for initiating this action. Now, the question is, can Donald Trump put pressure on Iran sufficient to get them to reverse course? Will this blockade succeed? The answer is not just no, but hell no. This blockade doesn't exist, first of all. To call it a blockade is incorrect. A blockade is an act of war. According to Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, we're not at war with Iran. It's a military operation.

And so right off the bat, we have a semantic issue because to say we're engaged in a blockade is to say that we are engaged in an act of war. And therefore, if we seek to board, say, ships that are flagged to China and Russia, it's an act of war or an act of piracy. But either way, it doesn't look good for the United States. You know, President John Kennedy was faced with the same semantic issue back in 1962, October 62, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. You know, popular accounts speak of a blockade, a naval blockade of Cuba. But of course, it wasn't because that would be an act of war, an act of war against the Soviet Union at that time. What John Kennedy called it was a quarantine. It was a quarantine of Cuba. And, you know, he was able using that, that terminology to get not just the US Navy involved, but also, you know, he attracted ships from Argentina, from Venezuela. You know, they were responding, these are organization of American states, responding to the Rio tree. The United Kingdom provided ships.

So it wasn't just the US Navy that was involved in the quarantine of Cuba, it was an international task force. The number of ships involved were dozens. And it was effective, they had a ring, a quarantine ring that extended out 800 miles, 500 miles from Cuba. And they were very effective in identifying ships and, you know, being prepared to stop them, board them, inspect them, should it come to that. Here in the, in the current blockade slash quarantine, the United States has 13 ships. But are they fully capable of carrying out this? First of all, they're operating in a huge expanse of, of water, the Indian Ocean. Even if they get into the Gulf of Oman, Iran, it's, it's, it's too much territory, too little ships. So they're physically unable to carry out an effective interdiction process or program. So right off the bat, whatever blockade or quarantine they're trying to achieve, they're physically not able to do so. But moreover, if they seek to board ships that are operating off the coast of Iran, within the range arc of Iran's ballistic missile or cruise missile capabilities, then this act of war would be responded to using military force by Iran, putting the ships that were carrying out the enforcement at great risk. And so what we see right off the bat is that this blockade has a huge no go zone for the US Navy that extends from the Iranian coast, you know, dozens of miles. How can you have a quarantine if you have a safety corridor already built in that the United States can't operate it and you don't. Moreover, you know, China has said that, that it will be shipping its, you know, sending its ships loaded with Iranian oil coming from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz and into the open oceans heading to China and that the United States will not interdict this and the United States won't interdict this. So, again, how can you have a quarantine or blockade when already there are exceptions? And I believe Russia is an exception and India is an exception and other nations will be exceptions as well. Even if the blockade were to work, though, you know, in terms of the numbers of ships and shutting down corridors, it's not going to have an effect.

One of the big problems that faces Donald Trump is time. Time. Time is not on his side. As we speak, you know, the United States is playing games with the international oil market. We are, you know, buying paper shares of oil, doing financial tricks to keep the price of oil down. But at some point in time, you know, reality will catch up and if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be constricted or if the United States does anything precipitous that causes it to close down, in short order, you will see oil, the price of oil, approach $200 a barrel. And that's fatal for the global economy. So time is not on the side of Trump. Time is on the side of the Iranians. You know, they don't need to ship a whole bunch of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. They are and they will continue to do so. But because of sanctions and because of the way Iran has dealt with sanctions, there's a great huge amount of Iranian oil out on the open seas in tankers that have just been floating around waiting for markets to develop.

That's how Iran has dealt with the sanctions. These tankers now will be going to ports of countries that need oil. Because again, thanks to Donald Trump, there's been a constriction of oil supplies and there's a need out there. And the Iranian ships with Iranian oil will, you know, provide that which nations need. And this will take weeks to do this. So already the Iranians have bought, you know, enough time. They're not going to suffer during the period of time if Trump was to successfully shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which he can't. Iran has developed mechanisms that will allow them to continue to receive oil-based income well beyond the two-week time period that Donald Trump's dealing with here. Iran also has sufficient land corridors available to it. Numerous nations border Iran and Iran has been shipping its oil through these nations to markets and will continue to continue to do so. And the sea-based, you know, embargo/blockade/quarantine that Trump is putting on Iran, at least in theory, has no impact on the land borders. So the bottom line is this quarantine is a joke. It's a political posture. And why is Donald Trump doing this? Donald Trump needs to be seen politically here at home as doing something that shows America is winning, that America is imposing its will on the region. Sadly, the American people are pretty ignorant about the world we live in. And, you know, not too many people are cognizant of the things that I've just discussed regarding the reality of the ineffectiveness of a quarantine and the reality of Iran's ability to bypass the quarantine. You know, so Donald Trump, being the con man that he is, will be able to convince enough Americans that, you know, whatever outcome he hopes to achieve, and believe me, I have a funny feeling that Americans and Iranians are going to be negotiating pretty soon because Donald Trump can't afford to restart this conflict. We don't know what Israel is going to do.

They're always the wild card. But from the American perspective, I don't see the United States restarting this conflict in terms of an active shooting where the consequences will be horrible for the United States. You know, Iran had the upper hand when the ceasefire began, and nothing's changed that would deny Iran from being able to continue to, you know, have the upper hand in terms of actual military face-to-face conflict. Trump can't go back to war, so he needs peace, but he needs peace on the terms that are politically acceptable to him amongst the domestic audience. And so the blockade is a bunch of blustering, a bunch of posturing. There's not much serious there, but the American people aren't in a position to ascertain whether the blockade is successful or not. They'll believe what the president tells him. And I have a funny feeling in a couple of days, the president's going to make an announcement that says, the Iranians have reached out to us, they're begging for a deal, and I'm ready to make a deal. And this deal could only happen because of my quarantine, my blockade of the Iranian ports. There it is, the reality of Donald Trump. Frustrating, but it's one we have to deal with. Anyways, that's my rant. Next time a thought crosses my mind, I'll be sure to let you know. Thank you.